Farmers, ranchers and gardeners are already stressed about the ongoing dry spell enveloping South Texas, and the outlook for the next couple months is not encouraging. Among the challenges we face are existing abnormally dry soils and fuels (brush, grass and trees), very low water levels in our reservoirs, and a rainfall outlook that is not encouraging.
An extended period of well below normal rainfall has multiple impacts on the Coastal Bend. First, protracted drought has left soils and fuels very dry, so any low-humidity and strong wind scenario would support brush and wildfires. Along with that reality is the foreboding outlook for farmers and their spring planting. Without sufficient ground moisture the 2025 planting season appears dismal. Gardeners face water restrictions that severely limit their ability to maintain healthy crops. Moreover, business and industry relying on water supplies are now very stressed with record low levels in our reservoirs.
Here is where we are at with respect to our lake levels: dismal. As of this writing, Choke Canyon is at 17.5% capacity, down from 18.3% a month ago. Similarly, Lake Corpus Christi, at 29.3%, is down from 33% a month ago. The combined figure of 20.8% compares to 22.4% a month ago. we are currently in Stage 2 water restrictions, and the threshold for moving to Stage 3 is to fall below 20% capacity. The trend is ominous.
As far as the outlook for more rainfall, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) prepares a variety of medium and long range temperature and precipitation outlooks. I have presented their seasonal outlooks through January 2025. In essence, South Texas is in a regime that includes below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. These are not encouraging trends, and they are the result of a developing and persisting La Nina pattern. Characteristically, a La Nina pattern will push the polar jet stream further north, leaving the southern U.S. warmer and drier than normal. This promotes extended drought and a more dangerous fire season with lower humidity.
These are the indications as of mid-November. There will, no doubt, be periods of welcome rainfall over the next couple of months. It is hoped that some of this rain will make it into our watershed, and onto your farms, ranches and gardens.