CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — It's been a very busy hurricane season across the Atlantic basin. South Texas was the target during the start of the season with Alberto and Berylmaking an impact here in our Coastal Bend neighborhoods. But now as we enter the final month of hurricane season, 15 names scratched of the 2024 list of storm names, the National Hurricane Center is still keeping an eye on the Caribbean Sea where "tropical trouble" could be brewing.
Is hurricane season over for the Coastal Bend?
Neighbors in the Coastal Bend have a saying— "once that first cold front hits, hurricane season is over". Well there's some merit to that idea, but it is a certainly a 'hot take'. While the Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30, a storm has never been within 100 miles of Corpus Christ during the month of November (according to NOAA's database).
There's a reason for this:
- As a Fall weather pattern sets up over the contiguous United States, longwave troughs dig deeper into the Southern Plains, eventually bringing cold fronts to South Texas. It's not the cold front that steers tropical trouble, but the longwave trough in the big weather picture that also steers the cold front. This tends to move any tropical development away from Texas.
- Fall also brings cooler weather. With less direct sunlight over the waters of the Atlantic basin and cooler air behind cold fronts, water temperatures cool off. Just like your bathwater, 'tropical trouble' doesn't like cold water. The magic number here is 82ºF; anything cooler is unfavorable for development.
Historically these two factors have kept the Coastal Bend storm-free during the last month of hurricane season.
But with just a month to go, don't go eating your unused 'hurricane snacks' just yet!
The National Hurricane Center is tracking an area of potential development in the Caribbean Sea.
Even Long-range predictions are suggesting that we'll be watching the Caribbean Sea into the first half of November.
This is typical of the late season pattern. The transition from October into November typically bring less activity over a smaller area of the Atlantic. This mean a small footprint for the National Hurricane Center to monitor. Check out this comparison of how frequent tropical activity has been historically during the two months.
So while it's not totally rare to be watching for tropical development in November, this is probably a symptom of the ongoing La Niña climate pattern.
So what's the bottom line?
So while historically the Coastal Bend has dubbed the end of October as its unofficial end to hurricane season, it's a good idea to hold off on throwing caution to the wind. In 2024 (and the past decade), the Atlantic basin has broken several records. Whether it was the most active season (2020), the most active November in the tropical weather records (also 2020), or the historically warmest sea surface temperatures (the last 5 years)— hurricane season has taught us not to rely so heavily on the past for decisions about the future. Keep your snackies ready for the rest of November and then celebrate with a 'feast' on last day of the month.