IS HURRICANE SEASON OFF TO AN EARLY START?
That's a question many have been asking this week. The question stems from a pre-season Special Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
While the NHC typically begins issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, March is very early. The NHC said that development was not expected from this disturbance. In fact, the NHC mentioned that this broad area of low pressure was non-tropical, but mentioned a very small chance of development.
The disturbance has since dissipated due to unfriendly atmospheric conditions, but the activity is sparking a frenzy of questions about the season.
DOES THIS TELL US ANYTHING ABOUT THE UPCOMING SEASON?
The short answer: not particularly.
When making long-term predictions about the weather, it's helpful to look at climate patterns or 'teleconnections'. You might be familiar with one: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As of March 2025, the current phase of ENSO is La Niña, but climatologists believe the neutral phase of ENSO (neither El Niño or La niña) is set to occur this summer.
Meteorologists at the NHC pay close attention to this climate signals because the tend to influence hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. El Niño is known to influence a less active season because the predominant weather patterns are not conducive for hurricane development. On the other hand, La Niña tends to promote a more active season because the upper level winds are less disruptive where hurricane development; they can actually help steer storms toward the U.S. Gulf coast region.
According to the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi, "the incidence of hurricanes is higher during the neutral phase (when neither El Niño nor La Niña are in effect) than during El Niño. Although hurricanes occur more often during La Niña episodes, significant tropical weather events have occurred during the neutral phase. For example, the record shattering 2005 hurricane season that included Katrina and Rita occurred during the neutral phase. Hurricane Andrew, the most destructive United States hurricane of record, made landfall along the Gulf coast during a neutral phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in 1992."
Regardless of the the ENSO phase, very warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin could lead to more activity. There are many factors to watch over the coming months.
THE 'BOTTOM LINE'
So while this interesting yellow 'x' caused a lot of discussion this week, it doesn't tell us much about what to expect this hurricane season. Regardless of the the ENSO phase, very warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin could lead to more activity. There are many factors to watch over the coming months. Living in the Coastal Bend, we should always be prepared for hurricane season!
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