CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — It's September. That means we are still in the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center is watching for tropical development in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico sometime next week. Whenever 'tropical trouble' is possible in the Gulf of Mexico, we keep a careful eye. As of 1 p.m. There is a 50% chance of development over the next seven days.
Here's the latest tropical outlook:
WHAT WE KNOW
Tropical low pressure is likely to form near the Yucatán Peninsula early next week. From there, this low pressure could develop further into a tropical depression of possibly a tropical storm. Nothing is expected this weekend, but by next Thursday or Friday we could be tracking our next named storm. The next name on the list is Helene. Regardless of development, rough surf is to be expected next week.
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW
Regardless of the buzz on social media, somethings we just can't say for certain yet:
- We don't yet know the extent of tropical development
- We don't yet know where any development would go
Forecast models are not going to do a good job of predicting this potential 'tropical trouble' because there's nothing there right now. Even short-range models struggle to predict what's to come when are area of interest is not a bonafide tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane). We'll have to keep watching if we want to know what will happen.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
I'll be watching for the generally weather pattern over the Lower 48: the position of the jetstream and the position of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. These patterns help to steer tropical systems. Wind sheer near the Yucatán Peninsula will help give an idea of when and how much development is possible. Finally, I'm watching the Central American Gyre (CAG), which is a counter-clockwise circulation in the atmosphere that occurs near Central America. It can promote tropical development and could be a factor in what happens next week.
WHAT TO DO NOW
Don't worry! There's nothing to worry about now, just an area to monitor. Don't be consumed by the frenzy of 'social media-rologists'. Have a great weekend!