MCALLEN, Tx — The South Texas border is a unique place politically, for years it has been a democratic stronghold but in 2020, a shift began for many of the counties located in the Rio Grande Valley, Republicans see a chance to help flip that area in 2024.
Andrew Smith, assistant professor of political science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley says although the valley has always been blue Hispanics in the area are primarily conservative.
"When I say the valley's got something to say, I think democrats and republicans are starting to realize that." He said.
2024 is a presidential election year and while Texas may be locked in red, the Rio Grande Valley has been blue for decades, but a shift has been seen since the 2020 general election and the 2022 mid-term elections.
"Its status as a democratic stronghold is a bit misleading," Smith said.
Smith adds that although this area has typically gone blue, Hispanic voters are traditionally conservative.
"As the Democratic party nationally moves more to the left or at least a portion of it, the people down here are more susceptible to the conservatism of the Republican party," Smith said.
Let's take a look at the numbers in Starr County, a county on the west side of the RGV, according to the Texas Tribune, in 2016 79 percent voted for Hillary Clinton and just 19 percent voted for former President Trump but in 2020 those numbers changed, 52 percent voted for president Joe Biden while 47 percent voted for former President Trump.
Republicans see an opportunity.
Adrienne Peña Garza with the Hidalgo County Republican Party says they have seen an increase in Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley joining their party.
"Hispanics have always been very conservative in nature. So slowly, I think they're seeing that the Republican party is welcoming and they identify more with their values."
Peña Garza said people identified with Former President Trump.
"When President Trump got into the picture, he fought for the everyday blue-collar American and encouraged people to be silent no more and I believe that's why he did so well, there's this message of freedom."
Eric Holguin, Texas State director of Unidos U.S. says while the shift is seen, democrats still hold a significant lead in the valley.
"If you look at the results of 2022, all of the counties in the Rio Grande Valley stayed Democrat, they didn't go red, there might be a slight uptick," Holguin said.
Holguin said there's a reason for that.
"The reason why we're seeing and keep hearing this narrative that we're going ready is because so much money and so much investment from the republican party has been put down here to try and flip this area." he said.
Professor Smith says both the Republican and Democratic parties nationally are paying attention to the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, both President Biden and former President Trump have made visits to the area recently.
"Democrats I think realize that if they do not speak to the population in the valley, do not speak to the people who live in the 4 counties of the lower Rio Grande Valley, if they take that for granted, they're in trouble." He said.
As November gets closer both parties will try to sway voters their way, will there be a flip in the valley or will Democrats strengthen their leads, we will see election day.
